Today's Disruptive Thought: GDP as Defense-Spending Rationale

Jeffrey R Franz-Lien -

Today, Veterans For Peace @VFPNational brought fresh news of Trump's NATO-shaming to my Twitter feed. Yet again, Trump wags his finger at NATO allies for not spending enough of their Gross Domestic Product on defense. How many times does he have to tell them, right? And I do yet another face palm -- my poor face is getting bruised.

How on earth are GDP and defense spending related? And why is 4% the magic number? How do we know it's not 1% or 6%? Someone please enlighten us.

I suppose GDP may be abstractly related to a country's ability to pay, or size of the treasure it's protecting. And percent of GDP is a benchmark -- a statistic that allows comparison to past spending. But that only tells us what we've done in the past. And we all know "that's the way we've always done it" is a weak argument.

So, the defense-spending equation can't really be that simple, can it? Aren't there lots other factors to consider, like size of the threat, an actual plan to manage that threat, and cost of the plan? Basing defense spending on a percentage of GDP just gets you a huge stockpile of defense stuff. Too often, that stuff is purchased on credit and may be very cool, but wrong for the job.

The truth is, the percentage-of-GDP" rationale is a fail -- it's so simplistic that it fails to make any coherent connection with reality. It's like basing my food budget on the circumference of my head.

Let's make this an election issue and demand a more rational answer.